Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
