A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
